Skip to main content

tv   Countdown  Bloomberg  February 29, 2016 1:00am-2:31am EST

1:00 am
, chineseanghai slide shares had for a 15 month low after g-20 makes only vague commitments to spur growth. political faces instability, the coalition loses its majority. we look to the bond market for reaction. >> iran reformist win big in parliamentary elections in a definitive rebuke to hardliners opposing cooperation with the west. take on theffett's economy and the presidential campaign. ♪
1:01 am
>> welcome to "countdown". >> chinese stocks weaker, volatility in the chinese currency, heading for the best month for the japanese currency. >> it is about the flow of money, isn't it? and we seem to be reflecting in terms of post g-20, china dropping, money flowing into the yen, and ,raders have taken a position japanese long positions, the market is as long on yen as it has been since 2012, and that has been manipulated a little bit by the month and adjustments
1:02 am
for the exporters selling dollar-yen. he doesn't support this helicopter money, save the world, drop a bag of cash on it. that seems to be the consensus view. >> we will see how they interpret the commitments that the g-20 made. how they see that as giving them cover or leaves them vulnerable. let's talk about some of the other assets on the move. we have the oil price on the move again. the rig count at its lowest since 2009. $35.32 -- nymex is weakened since the last few hours. speculators raise their
1:03 am
net long positions to the highest since+++ prices are unsustainable. goat is the -- gold is the biggest winner of 2016. gold trading at 1228. anna: the dollar and brexit this week as we head towards june 23. let's stick a look at bloomberg first word news. >> the indian prime and -- finance minister present in his budget. that india must continue with its pace of reforms. ireland facing the prospect of a grand alliance after the general election left no party with the majority. the prime minister is expected
1:04 am
to finish ahead of the pack and will have to negotiate a coalition. .hey include traditional rivals the outgoing government suffered a huge loss of support. the leader of britain's opposition labor party says greece's former finance minister will advise his party in some capacity. in an interview, mr. corbin said he was interested because of his experience in europe. meanwhile, he said that a brexit would "cause ruptures in the eu would lead to the effective dismantling of the union." jack you -- check news has britain should stay within the eu. lew says britain should stay within the eu. secure worldore
1:05 am
with the united kingdom in the european union, which is why we believe that it is important for the voters of the u.k. to think the impact this decision will have within and outside of the u.k. texas senator ted cruz says donald trump may all but lock up the republican presidential nomination if he wins big on super tuesday. aanwhile, hillary clinton won landslide victory over bernie sanders in south carolina on saturday. she now seems more likely to clinch the party nomination. warren buffett rejected the economic pessimism dominating the presidential campaign is dead wrong. in his annual letter to shareholders come in the 85-year-old made a case for a bright future, saying that " babies being born in america today are the luckiest in history." leonardo dicaprio finally won an
1:06 am
oscar for best actor for his role in "the revenant." global news 24 hours a day powered by our 2400 journalist and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. manus: let's get straight to asia. tape.of a negative is that fair in terms of post g-20? there was no grand bargain. the not worried about china, apparently. >> good morning. we are seeing a big switch out of stocks in china. investors their concern by the lack of strong sentiment coming through from the g20 leaders about how they are going to boost global growth. with af analysts commentary good were seeing the shanghai composite down home is 4% in late trade, now holding it levels we have not seen since seen since 2014.
1:07 am
really played into the rest of the region today. we had a fairly positive start coming through from japanese equities, but we started to see a little bit more risk off sentiment and the yen has started to strengthen and light trade. the nikkei 225 closing lower by 1%. a flat finish by korea and australia, also new zealand. of course we are having the indian investors respond to the budget being handed down currently am a very much focused on the agricultural sector, up by a 10th of 1% at the moment. there has been a fair bit of company news for investors in this part of the region to digest today, nissan coming through with a $3.5 billion share buyback, the biggest in history, sending its share price surging in late trade, the most since 2009. nintendo coming through saying halved.st-half profit
1:08 am
gordon, resuming trade and tanking today after announcing a first-half loss due to the write-down of one of its u.k. businesses. this is the picture on some of the main automotive stocks in india as we start to hear the budget coming down. there is going to be possible tax reform and a new in mission standard, which analysts are saying will see surging sales of medium and heavy trucks continue across india. mahindra and mahindra looking pretty good at the moment come up by 2.3%. ,he indian rupee is weaker holding at 68.68, and that's what we've seen across a lot of the currencies in the region today, particular high-yielding currencies coming under pressure to let led by the new zealand dollar, down seven tens of 1% at 55.87. latesthank you with the
1:09 am
from hong kong. g-20 finance ministers a governments must do more to boost global growth and central banks must take a step back, the headline from this weekend's meeting in shanghai. our chief agent economics correspondent was there and joins us from hong kong. good morning to you. the to see you. to see you could some recognition from these assembled leaders of the limits of monetary policy. >> good morning. this is about the extent of what they agreed on. an emerging consensus that we need to take the global policymakers taking the burden off central banks a little bit and the government needs to spend more money, and these collective governments need to begin structural reforms. that is the area of domestic -- unpopularular reforms that will lengthen the workday, nothing that the g-20 can't deliver much on.
1:10 am
so while they have sort of agreed to take pressure off central banks, it's hard to see how they would deliver on that. they are heading into territory that the g-20 can't make collective agreements on. manus: it doesn't really have any teeth, does it? janet yellen quietly in the background. g-20tural reforms from the ? >> that's exactly right. it's interesting you mentioned janet yellen. conversation was more focused on the asia side of things, china and japan. the structural reforms are really boring, difficult to achieve, take a long time to implement common -- implement kind of changes, but do yield long-term benefits. what has been talked about a
1:11 am
g-20 and other forms, some people can take the lead on it. china is talking about implementing big changes in some sectors such as the sle sector oe sector. the best example is japan. pushing through unpopular changes across the economy, primus robbie has made slower progress, and that's the challenge the g-20 faces. delivering on that is going to be tougher. anna: thank you very much. interesting,was citibank pointing out how the fed had a quiet g-20. the line about monetary policy tightening being more likely in some advanced economies was drop this time around. that would not have been done in conjunction with commentary from the fed, but stronger data in
1:12 am
the u.s. does not necessary point to a clear path. interesting. manus: let's bring in our guest host. charlie, great to see you. ,osted g-20, a wonderful line we will use physical -- fiscal flexibly to strengthen job creation and confidence. there is a great distance between writing up the memo and the reality. there was no grand cardin -- bargain. were we all just hoping for too much from g-20? perhaps there was much for people to get their teeth into. equity markets had a good week last week. less pressurender to do something over the weekend. the market looks like it will slip off a bit this morning. i was not expecting much from g-20. be a: there does seem to
1:13 am
recognition that monetary policy has its limits, that there's a role for fiscal authorities to play here. anna: does that tell us anything about where were going to see any boost to the global economy coming from thinking about this big economies that have been doing so much in terms of monetary policy? >> i hope so. i am worried that the markets are too reliant on policy and central banks to bail them out all the time. i keep looking to the authorities to help them out. that is a worrying place. i think they can move on from that soon. manus: every time we see a dip in the markets, and this is the , we need to break this monetary experiment has gone on for so long at levels we have never seen before, but every time these markets and dip , then we look toward central banks for salvation, and the point about it is that monetary policy has run its course. what comes next?
1:14 am
is it a big fiscal stimulus from china? is that would where expecting? they do not expect any major revaluation in the yuan. i can't help thinking that people are focusing too much on china. ago,u look back ten-year's we talked about china very little, and now it dominates the conversation. it does strike me that people are getting too dependent on china and stimulus. this worries me because it is becoming almost a sort of a drug for central bankers. christine lagarde of the imf said china express no intention to devalue their there is a great
1:15 am
deal of interest in what the chinese are doing with their currency, isn't there? whether this is a point of tension that will at some point have to break. you think it will have to be a big devaluation of the chinese currency? >> i hope not. , peoplepened in august read it as, hang on, do they really do that? anna: in terms of the losses, there are expanding. you have emerging-market currencies slipping. had you look at the world between developed markets in terms of exposure. we haven't added any new money to emerging markets.
1:16 am
the story looks great from the top of the underperformance of the emerging markets worries us. it will not be until we see a real stabilization of across-the-board. i have taken that out to five years. that makes it even more tragic. save yout that would if stability comes? relativei look at the performance of the emerging markets. some stability and perhaps reaches three months of relative highs, then i would say it is time to buy. there has been no sign of that for months.
1:17 am
waiting for that signal. anna: thank you. everyone likes a little bit of u.k. property. get the most closely watched data of all, eurozone inflation data for february. anna: we get a glimpse at the state of the u.s. economy with the chicago pmi. up next. berkshire hathaway c fourth quarter profits soared. have their investments paid off? that is the discussion up next here on "countdown". ♪
1:18 am
1:19 am
1:20 am
anna: welcome back. this is "countdown". it has surged the most in
1:21 am
seven years. it plans to buy back $3.5 million in stock. the chairman is responding to a 24% decline for the company's shares through friday. sharp shares have fallen. they are considering a possible revision of their takeover deal. the companies worked on the deal over the weekend. sharp liabilities that could exceed 2.6 billion dollars. citigroup has become embroiled in the world football corruption inquiry. it was subpoenaed. fifa is under investigation for alleged bribery and corruption over the 2018 world cup. last may, the u.s. claimed that ride money came from a number of the banks including citibank and j.p. morgan. the man who controls godzilla is
1:22 am
going after mickey mouse. chinese billionaire plans to spend more than $3 billion on a retail and leisure project outside of paris. it would include a theme park and hotel. missis your bloomberg's flash. business flash. let's talk about berkshire hathaway. results cap another record year for a bit. over the last five decades, he has built berkshire hathaway into a sprawling enterprise with a stock portfolio estimated to be $110 million. charles is still with us. this is interesting.
1:23 am
these things go in phases. at one point, people were saying -- why invest in this conglomerate structure? why not make your own picks as an investor? here is someone, theory successfully investing in disparate industries. charlie: one of the attractions of war and and berkshire -- warren and berkshire is not only the investment but what we can learn from him. his number one concern is that he trusts the management of the people that runs the business that he buys. that is a great way to invest it seems. i think he does fundamentally understand. they are normally very simple businesses and reliable income streams. you are a fan of his business. one thing he warned about is the
1:24 am
next graphic i have which is the ma activity. averse man that is not to that. should we be more concerned about that activity? charlie: he is normally very &a.tical of m and says that management teams that do these big deals do not sufficiently at to the earnings streams. principally because he says they are doing it for their own interest rather than the shareholder interests. he is number three. he is the number three at -- number three billionaire on the list. that is nothing compared to gates.
1:25 am
bill gates lost $2.9 billion. bezos lost $10 billion. who has lost the most? rren has lost $220 million. you like the stock. charlie: i do like the stock. they did not have a particularly good year last year. it has a great selection of his misses in it. some have quite -- some have done quite well. he has built a business that is reliable. anna: he is not shy to dabble in politics. the presidential campaign has caught his interest. regarding the american dream and whether america really is broken. you are used to him getting involved in politics. charlie: he likes hillary.
1:26 am
some remarks in the report regarding the gdp per capita. commenting that 2% growth on that figure is a nice number. and it has grown dramatically over a long time period. manus: he says the next generation is not as badly off in the u.s. this goes back to talking about cpi reading hot. are things stepping up in the u.s.? charlie: i think so. equityblem for most investors is that the rest of the world looks like a difficult place. the u.s. is high. valuations may be a bit too high. a stronger dollar is perhaps a problem for the u.s. anna: thank you so much.
1:27 am
manus: why the economy remains ronnie's -- the prime minister's primary target. we go to toronto. ♪ -- manus: let's get to your
1:28 am
1:29 am
1:30 am
bloomberg first wellness. nejra: good morning. the indian finance minister is third touch.is he says gdp growth will accelerate to 7.6% and says india must continue. island is facing this prospect of a grand alliance. prime minister is expected to finish ahead of the pack, but will have to negotiate a coalition with other parties. the outgoing government suffered a huge loss of support with
1:31 am
voters angry at spending cuts. the leader of britain's opposition labor party says he will advise his party in some capacity. in an interview, mr. corbyn says he is interested because of his experience and europe. brexit willays a cause ruptures in the eu. the u.s. secretary is also weighin in. he thinks britaqin should remain within the eu. unitedee a stronger kingdom, a stronger europe, a stronger global economy, and a more secure world with the united kingdom and the european union, which is why we believe it is important for the voters of the u.k. to think about this and think about the
1:32 am
impact this decision will have both within and outside of the u.k. cruz says donald trump may all, but lock up the presidential nomination if he wins big on super tuesday. hillary clinton won a landslide victory over bernie sanders on saturday. she now seems more likely to clinch the party nomination. leonardo dicaprio has finally won an oscar. "spotlight" was crowned best picture. you., back to anna: let's look ahead to the rest of the day on bloomberg television. is the move" guy johnson here. angela merkel, then. echoing some of the things we have heard about help for greece. guy: greece is one of those
1:33 am
things that has been in the background. the markets are going to start to wake up to it this week into next week.. greece is being effectively shut out and merkel is getting increasingly angrier about it. he started to soften his line. greece is still the go shooting with its creditors and still trying to deal with the problems of not fixing the issues last time around. i am just beginning to listen to what markel said. the markets are yet to pick up, but this could be the week where that changes. manus: it seems to me that that , in conjunction with the budget requirements in march, will raise the financial specter as well domestically within greece. the imf has canceled some of the government's requests. guy: they still have not gotten this problem fixed.
1:34 am
we are still in a position in greece where they are having to negotiate every last little bit. you wonder whether angela merkel, who moved heaven and earth last time around to make sure greece remained in the ozone, whether she will try to make those terms is eager. manus: in terms of china and in terms of post g-20 -- it is interesting. the number of times they are delivering continuity in terms of maneuvering with the yuan is dissipating. it are trying to wrong foot the market in terms of keeping at guessing. how does china fit into your story? guy: china is saturday. you move forward to saturday and you get these targets. is 6.5%-7%.
1:35 am
guy: this will be a focus during the front end of the week with these big drops. i am curious why this is happening. do you think that is the g-20? or is it the lack of stimulus? i would be surprised if that was the case. number,s the payroll's i think the market will have a number of big stories to focus on. anna: many investors are disappointed over what china has delivered over the past months. if you are interested in emerging markets, maybe you still can go. we are just getting news from india on the subject of their budget. their goal was 3.9% for gdp. the finance minister is speaking over in india. they retained their 2015 at it deficit target of 3.9% of gdp. that budget is delivered in front of india lawmakers today.
1:36 am
, wes: listening to guy talk have the payroll story on friday as well. the inflation story is changing. what worries you the most? if you look at china or the inflation data in the u.s., as well as the greek story, as he go back to the desk, what do you think those conversations will be with the clients? >> the primary conversations i have right now is about brexit. that is the only thing i talked about last week. anna: is that with british clients? >> yes, british clients. they want to talk about that and try to work out what that means. they say, our position here is fairly neutral. we don't really want to have a position on it just yet. other things that worry us -- we still worry about putin. the immigration issue is a big thing for us.
1:37 am
ultimately, you have to work from the basic assumption that the equity market is it a correction stroke. people need to be careful about trying to spot value and just be patient. i expect us to have a few more b ad days yet. you for that.nk victory for president rouhani. manus: the results follow a high turnout. coalition also has an early lead in a separate vote for the assembly of experts. the senior clerical body that selects iran's supreme leader. anna: the lifting of sanctions remains a return to oil exportation. oil has had its fourth month of decline.
1:38 am
this is amid a global glut. let's welcome charles newsom back into the conversation. great to have you with us. thank you for joining us. these election results i have come in, a number of you will focus on a number of factors. there was also much more assembly of the experts. give us your take on the election results? >> we have seen a huge turnout. one of the things remarkable is the real passion of a lot of iranians to want to go to the polls. you would think that with so much at stake you would not see this great turnout.
1:39 am
one of the things many people are looking at is the real hun ger of young people to make it to the polls. and as you said, the assembly of experts -- which is not something that attracts a lot of attention. this time it will be important because they are choosing potentially, the next supreme leader. tehrans expected because is the cosmopolitan city. it is expected to win in terms of reformers. the assembly of experts saw many reformers come through. rouhani, and others that will take the country in a different direction, are taking over a very important counsel. anna: what about the relationship between rouhani and the supreme leader? the progress the reformists have made in the parliamentary elections are all very well, but this is what really matters. >> absolutely and the current supreme leader and president
1:40 am
have a tense relationship. the supreme leader tried to undermine rouhani every once in a while. what we have seen with many others coming into the assembly of efforts that are from the reformist camp, the possibility that we are going to choose the next supreme leader that is a much more open-minded person, that is probably going to be more open to the west, perhaps lessening the strict social controls over the society -- all of that bodes very well for the future of iran. manus: part of the discussion is what the reformists or moderates will go for. and is that natural reform, rather than any radical social reforms. that is what will probably end the day and what will be tolerated. >> the goal will probably be to focus on the economic.
1:41 am
that is something that delivers to everybody. i think the focus will be to talk about economic reform. part of that will include greater foreign investments, allowing more foreign companies to come in, releasing some of the sanctions that have been plaguing the iranian economy -- all of that is part of the sort of direction we're going to see iran take forward. that isn't to say there won't be spoilers. the hardliners really control the economy in many ways. they benefited from sanctions over the years. they tend to be the middlemen in many ways. manus: do they still hold power? >> they hold the real power in the economic sphere, absolutely. with the supreme leader being from the hardliners, they controlled foreign policy. that is something many people want to see change in. it is the supreme leader the ultimately has the day on
1:42 am
foreign policy. anna: some are already in a heay in iran. this is a complex environment, in which we don't have much experience. thought.low that >> it is not the same as it would be in the midwest. many investors will be very weary about going into a country like that, for they don't know if their rights will be protected. we have seen a lot of chinese and indian companies, who are a little more risk takers in that field, going in and perhaps, the west will be a little slow. definitely, the united states will be very slow. most investors there are being told and advised not to go in because the legal environment is not conducive to them at all. manus: there are many prisms
1:43 am
through which people look at iran. they have just been relieved from their sanctions. they are not about to give up and join the saudi-russia freeze. how do you look at iran? >> i think there is great opportunity in iran. there are a number of companies that are getting quite excited about some of the prospects. it is worth to bear in mind, they have a very long history going over many decades of building cars. they will be keen to get back into the environment. civil the great opportunities for equity investors. at the moment, i think you should just sit back and watch. i think for me, it is sit back and watch time. anna: you spoke about the importance of delivering
1:44 am
economically. the importance of delivering economically -- does that mean there is very little joints that iran complies with any suggestion of a freeze in production? >> absolutely. this is very important for them to really get back online with the oil markets. they have been shut out effectively for three years. there is a hunger in society to see some economic change. that is where rouhani has to deliver. i don't see them complying with the saudi and russian idea. we saw that in opec meetings where iranians said, that is a great idea, but it does not include us. of course, the real challenge is that the pipelines are not ready to get going to full capacity. to be updated.need manus: i love a bit of a traders
1:45 am
note. net longs are at the highest level since november. the question is, have we seen the lows -- are you a $20 man? how often does that come up in clients?ion with are you an opportunist? >> i don't think we have seen a low for oil. it is all a bit of a guess. nor have i seen anything that would indicate they turnaround in prices yet. goas expecteing it to lower. at one point, economists said we would see a bounce and perhaps, that is what we see. anna: we have come a long way.
1:46 am
says $20 guest that oil is where we are going. thank you for joining us. manus: we are going to talk about iron next. a grand coalition, a grand alliance. what is the mean for the country's bond markets and for the people of ireland? ♪
1:47 am
1:48 am
1:49 am
anna: welcome back. this is "countdown." let's get to your bloomberg business flash. nejra: shares have surged by the most in seven years after the company announced plans to buy back $3.5 million in stocks. directors on the board are responding to a 24% decline this year through friday. sharp shares have fallen. the two companies worked through
1:50 am
the weekend to salvage their proposed $6 billion deal. they signed the agreement after learning of new sharp liabilities. pharmaceuticals is withdrawing its financial forecast and will delay releasing its fourth-quarter results. the ceo faces questions about business practices, strategy, and accounting. the stock has lost more than 2/3 of its value since august and was scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results today. citigroup has become embroiled in a corruption inquiry. it has been subpoenaed. they are under investigation for alleged bribery and corruption. last may the u.s. claims that bribe money passed through a number of big thanks, including citigroup and jpmorgan. the indictment though, does not
1:51 am
accuse them of wrongdoing. the chinese billionaire plans to spend more than $3 billion on a leisure product outside paris. this will include a theme park, as well as shopping, and conference centers. that is your bloomberg business flash. manus: thank you very much. island is facing a grand alliance after the general election left no party with a majority. prime minister enda kenny is expected to finish ahead of the pack, but will have to negotiate a coalition with the other parties. anna: they include fianna fail and sinn fein. voters were angry about that rose.d prices manus: they could show that the window of opportunity is closing for the ecb to signal stimulus
1:52 am
intentions before this self-imposed period starts thursday. anna: charles newsom is still with us. charles, another government which has been phoned into political turmoil. spain, ofing of course >> with brexit going on, this is making the situation worse. this could lead to continued uncertainty in ieurope. we don't have a particularly strong view on brexit currently. from what we have seen in ireland, was in some sense, what happened with spain latley. continue to remain
1:53 am
nervous for the situation in europe. manus: what does that mean? this is the data. if you take the data and politics, there are some people who are optimistic. this is germany, france, spain. they are all in negative territory. this window we refer to -- there is a heavy level of expectation forrom the ecb. where do you think the ecb will go to in terms of its negative rate policy? what is your current thinking? it all goes back to begging the central bank for more stimulus. >> as i said before, that is somewhat worrying. when they talk about different scenarios for equity markets, i think that is primarily because we are overdue a correction with equity markets. it got too high in may last year. bear markets typically last a
1:54 am
minimum amount of time. what i am trying to say to people is be cautious before you add or money to your equity positions. if we have a decent sized rally, review your overall portfolio to make sure you are not over invested. having a bit of cash in your portfolio is a sensible play. i don't know what the right thing for the ecb to do is yet. investors are looking for bailouts. anna: you say on brexit you don't want to have a position, but the reality of uncertainty in the markets is here for your investors to deal with. how do you advise investors to protect themselves? are you going into specific strategies with investors at the moment? >> we are not, actually, apart from keeping equity weightings down.
1:55 am
at some stage, you have to look at some of what you see from the major politicians and it has become a little bit sensationalist. has become a bit of a one off deal. anna: i read an interesting story this morning about how calls on the brexit are dividing the conversation. this is on the event of a brexit. interest rates will be lower for longer. others say this ties into nervousness about u.k. assets. where would you see the logic? >> there is i suspect, a little bit of value emerging from a longer guilt issuance. i am concerned that investors are adding with these returns. they only offer insurance here. they don't offer much more than that.
1:56 am
you could argue that is better than cash. there is quite a lot of value emerging in some of the slightly more distressed corporate bond type markets where there is some really nice returns beginning to emerge. ok, they are investment-grade or below. it,le are intelligent about they could get some nice returns. manus: thank you very much. brexit, brexit, and more brexit for this week. thank you, charles newsom. anna: up next, the shanghai slump. that has certainly been the story so far. we have seen some retreat to save havens. though the shanghai composite is down by 2.9%. manus: here we are.
1:57 am
monthn is having its best since 2008. u.s. equity futures are also indicated a bit lower. more to come from anna and i. ♪
1:58 am
1:59 am
2:00 am
manus: the sug -the shanghai composite is it a 15 month low. anna: ireland faces a political instability. loses itsalition majority and we look for bond market reactions. anna: dead wrong. warren buffett's take on the economic pessimism dominating the u.s. presidential campaign.
2:01 am
manus: welcome to "countdown." prime minister any. anna: i am anna edwards. does this translate to a weakness in the european opening mark critz? -- opening markets? dow -- paris is of 1%. 8/10 we have had the best month since october 2008. money is coming out of equities and going into the yen. leonardo dicaprio has won his oscar. what more could you want in a monday morning? anna: let's talk about some breaking news out of the german economy. sales are up 0.7% in germany, ahead of the estimate which was for 3.0% gains.
2:02 am
share number was negative. there are some complexities in the details. they are looking to china, worrying about the german export engine. ee just howo s strong it can be. manus: on friday we have the negative inflation data readings. we will get the whole of europe today. that german data is incredibly important. you up to speed. it is monday morning. we have oil, gold, and a little bit of sterling for you. 1/2 of 1%. bullish bets and speculators raising their positions to the
2:03 am
highest since november. saudi arabia and russia continue with their freeze agreement. anna: let's talk about gold. around 15%llies yesterday. 6.5% since the start of the year. tit was really hit last week, wasn't it? seen a bit of a clearer read. there are calls on both sides for what will happen to the market in the event of the brexit. manus: we will watch what happens with the irish government bond market. is he trying to put a grand coalition? who will exceed? power in ireland?n
2:04 am
of robust government could put all of the issues right in front. anna: let's get to carolyn. caroline: the indian prime finance minister is presenting his third budget. he insists india must continue with its pace of reform. island is facing the prospect of a grand alliance after the general election left no party with a majority. prime minister enda kenny is expected to finish ahead of the pack. its traditional rivals are fianna fail and sinn fein. voters are angry at spending cuts and tax rises. says the finance minister will advise his party in some capacity.
2:05 am
yn saidnterview, mr.corb he was interested because of his experience in europe. mr. varoufakis says a brexit well interrupt the eu. the u.s. treasury secretary has also weighed in on the brexit debate. he thinks britain should remain in it the eu. >> we see a stronger united kingdom, a stronger europe, and a stronger global economy, and a more secure world with the united kingdom in the european weon, which is why believe it is important for the voters to think about this and to think about ththe impact of this decision will have. ted cruz says donald trump may all but lock up the
2:06 am
nomination if he wins big on super tuesday. hillary clinton won a landslide victory over bernie sanders on saturday. she is likely to clinch her party nomination. warren buffett has rejected the economic pessimism dominating the united states. 85-year-old made a case for a bright future, saying that " babies being born in america today are the luckiest in history." leonardo dicaprio has finally won an oscar. he was given the academy award for best actor within "the revenant." aobals news powered 24 hours 150 news bureaus around the world. anna: what is the asian picture
2:07 am
look like -- what does the asian picture look like? reporter: it was looking like it was going to be a positive monday before the china market opened up. the shanghai composite closed lower at 3% today. investors are very concerned. commentary from the g-20 over the weekend was very vague. there was not a lot of direction regarding how leaders would boost global growth. we did see a lot of the commodities and tech players coming under pressure in the shanghai composite. we can also see that weakness in hong kong. the hang seng is down by 1.4%. we are hearing from the indian regarding theer budget today. the finance minister said the global economy is in crisis. indinia has asia's largest deficit, of course.
2:08 am
japan's market is closing down by 1% today. 1.7%. point, it was up by there was a very strong boost by nissan, which had its biggest surge since 2009. they announced a $3.5 billion buyback. really, a lot of this weakness is coming through in china. you can see every sector on the shanghai composite has closed lower. tech stocks are down by 1.7% and health care is off by 5% today. i want to show you the bond market. hat theto show you how sentiment has been across the region today. we have seen a lot of money pouring into those 10 year bond yields in india. that is down by 7.7%. in australia, things looked a little bit more positive today.
2:09 am
we some money switching out of bonds into the 10 year yield. that rose by 2.4%. a little bit of a negative start in europe. manus: thank you very much, rounding up all the start of the trading week. the finance minister says the government must do more and central banks must take a step back. that is the headline coming from the meeting in shanghai. anna: bloomberg was there and we are joined from hong kong with the details. what did the leaders agree on specifically? there is a lot of big talk at the end of these meetings. >> good morning. a lot of big talk, but no sign of a shanghai accord. people were talking about a new plaza accord. we are a long way from that. they did a great to move to take the burden away from central banks to boost growth.
2:10 am
there was a feeling that central banks have done as much as they can. governments are spending a bit more in projects and infrastructure to put people into work. of course, they need to do more in the area of structural reform. say this, but the push for reform requires support on the ground. we only have to look at japan. we can see much of a progress on the structural side of things, which impacts people's lives. i think we are a long way away from getting a consensus on this. manus: will governments implement these reforms?
2:11 am
the reality is implementation -- it is like opec, isn't it? there are a lot of leaks in the g-20. >> because you are getting into domestic politics -- the g-20 at its most effective, can make the global interest rate move one way or the other. or even on occasion, a global push to spend more money in a crisis. the message was, we are not in a crisis. instead, what they are saying is, the need to push through these structural reforms. is there a political appetite to push through changes? people might work for less or be
2:12 am
more productive. it is hard to see which governments can take the lead. china can take the lead because there is significant overcapacity in coal and steel. they could show the rest of the world, we are making some painful decisions. you need to follow suit. anna: thank you very much, enda. good to see you on the program. hour, people have told us not to expect much out of china. we all focus a lot on china. in the wake of what we heard from the g-20, what are your thoughts on the global growth story? >> i think we are still in a situation where the world is modeling through. the markets have been very volatile. oil prices got mixed up in all of that.
2:13 am
people are getting a bit confused between financial signals and real economic outcomes and ata. -- and data. as far as i can see, the economic data is still reflecting the moderate growth at the global level. we have seen some decent data out of the u.s. at the start of this year. the chinese data has never been as bad as is commonly portrayed. investment spending is certainly slowing, but the consumer has been pretty strong in china and the service sector has been strong. as far as i can see, it is a moderate global outlook. manus: whether we agree or whether we disagree, all the data coming from china are what drives our sentiments. one of the things we looked at this morning is the shift in terms of the urbanization program in china. that was quite a dramatic slowdown over this period of tieme.
2:14 am
there talking about rebalancing of china. we will get new growth targets later this week -- 6.5%-7% is what we're looking for. what does this mean? tie this together for us. >> there is no doubt that china, from a structural perspective, is going to slow. whether it is because of demographics, whether it is because of lower investment spending in china -- china has invested a lot over the last few decades. most economists would agree that they have over invested. we are bound to go through a period of declining growth. the growth potential is coming down. we are no longer looking at a chinese economy growing at 12% each year. we are looking at the end of this decade, probably at an average rate of growth somewhere
2:15 am
in the 5%-6% range. jobs: this is the lowest growth rate since 1993. we looked at the german data this morning. we are still trying to get to the bottom of what is going on for europe. that is not bode well in terms of the rebalancing story, does it? >> i think it is just part of the overall story. don't forget, the demographics are changing as well. also, there has been this big move to the urban economy from the rural economy. as they slow down the investment, that transition from agriculture to industry and to the service sector, is about to slow down. growth in urban jobs, which is the chart you were showing, naturally will decelerate. yes, they will be slower growth. there will be less demand coming from china. that is part of what we are seeing in the commodity complex at the moment, but that is not
2:16 am
the story as far as oil is concerned. anna: that does take us to the oil subject. an interesting line in your notes, you are talking about where oil tends to bottom out. we were looking at the history of the oil price. we could go back to the $20 oil. and i say "gloomy" because that is how the markets are interpreting it. there is however, an upside to it. >> analysis goes back over 150 years, putting the u.s. oil price in a real terms. most of the time during those price remained between $20 and $60. in four out of every five months, oil price is within that $20-$60 range. it does go up now and again as it has done recently, but it
2:17 am
always goes back down again. when the price comes back down, it always goes down to $20 in today's prices. that is over that 150 year range. if you look at the cost of producing oil today, the operational cost. and that is what is important. because tested go below operating costs. operating costs are going down. even in the north sea, it was estimated last year that those operating costs on average, were from $3020 per barrel the year before, falling to $17 by the end of this year. the oil price has to come down quite some way before we get below the operating cost. manus: did we test the $20 before we saw the worst? >> absolutely. and it isto $20
2:18 am
possible we go below that. naiv -- call me naive, i think it is still good news at the end of the day. anna: india does tend to benefit. at 6 trillionwing rupees. the finance minister is hailing the successes of the indian economy, despite the turmoil in global markets. manus: thanks to politics and. to paul -- thanks jackson. stay with "countdown." ♪
2:19 am
2:20 am
2:21 am
2:22 am
anna: welcome back. let's get to the bloomberg business flash. announcedthe company plans to buy back $3.5 billion in stocks. directors on the board are responding to a decline in the company shares. willnt pharmaceuticals delay releasing its fourth-quarter results. the executive faces questions about his business practices, strategy, and accounting. the stock has lost more than 2/3 of its value since august. the company was scheduled to release its fourth-quarter results today. the ceo of deutsche bank is joining the online lenders.
2:23 am
he follows morgan stanley into the space. that is your bloomberg business flah. manus: thank you very much. it is a busy, busy week ahead. we are going to kick it off with inflation for february. it is one of the glass pieces of data the ecb will get before the march decision. anna: next, we have the super tuesday primaries. half the delegates needed to win the election are at stake. nejra: thursday, hundreds of politicians begin a two day meeting to lay the groundwork for the congress expected in march. anna: finally on friday, we guess u.s. payroll numbers. u.s. economists are expecting the jobless rate to hold at an
2:24 am
eight year low. let's welcome back paul jackson. we are talking about the data we will get this week. in terms of this data coming out from the united states, are you seeing some better data? we have the inflation numbers, for example, on friday. readings got people wondering what's again, -- wondering once again, about how many rate hikes we will see. >> in the last couple weeks, we had cpi, which was 2.2%. as friday, we had the pce number at 1.7%. that is the number the fed probably focuses on more. underlying inflation pressures are building up. i suspect the market will revise its estimates of how much the fed will raise rates this year.
2:25 am
back in december, the market was looking for three rate hikes. in the last couple weeks it has almost gone down to zero rate hikes this year. i expect those numbers will edge their way up. it is not just the inflation. it is the activity data. these are the inflation expectations and this ties in. turn at just begun to the bottom. there is still a lack of connection tween what the fed is saying they can do. we have a piece saying this could be the shortest hiking cycle. there is this disconnect. higher.spiking the estimation of the market probabilities change with the
2:26 am
wind. it is based much more on volatility in financial markets than it is -- guy: predictability of the fed. >> exactly. personal spending and income were higher than were expected for the month of january. it is not that the u.s. economy is bouncing ahead very strongly. the situation is not as bad as the financial markets arhave been indicating. manus: it is not a crisis. do not expect a crisis-like response. ok, thank you very much for being with us this morning. anna: up next, we are 30 minutes away from the start of the european equity trading day. we will take you through everything you need to know. theerms of where the futur
2:27 am
future will be, it looks like a negative day. manus: the world is waiting to see how the inflation data comes out in europe. guy, the team, and francine will take you through that. ♪
2:28 am
2:29 am
2:30 am
manus: welcome to "on the move." we are counting down to the european open. i am guy johnson. here is what we are watching. the shanghai slide, chinese stocks tumble. is the market still expecting too much from central bankers? angela merkel suggested greece needs europe's help. is the market underestimating the chance of another great ek crisis? th

25 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on